So, You Want to Write a Book

Once you write and publish a book, something interesting happens.  All sorts of people tell you about their dream of also writing a book.  I love having these conversations.  It seems appropriate today, on the one-year anniversary of the release of Back to the Futures, that I share some of the things I have learned in my journey as a first-time book author.  I want to say from the start that I was incredibly naïve when I first hatched the idea for writing Back to the Futures.  I had no idea what it would really take to publish and market a book.  Fortunately, my co-author and amazing friend Doug Peterson is an experienced professional writer with over 70 books to his credit.  I now realize what an incredible stroke of good fortune it was to partner with a real pro on my first book.  I realize not everyone will be as fortunate.

With that in mind, I think I will start with some basics about the book business.  Probably everyone knows there are two basic genres of books: fiction and non-fiction.  Being a dedicated non-fiction reader my entire life (I love history), I had no idea that non-fiction was such a small part of the book market.  It is hard to get reliable statistics in the public domain, but the old 80/20 rule does not seem too far off the mark—about 80% of books sold are fiction and 20% are non-fiction.  Further, the vast majority of fiction books are either mystery or romance.  Of course, lots of people understand this so the fiction market is highly competitive.  But that is where the money is.  

The next big issue is I what I call writing for concept versus writing for the market.  Let me explain.  Most people, like me, think they have a great idea for a book, start writing and maybe even someday finish it and get it published.  That is what I call writing based on your own original idea or concept and letting it rip.  Lots of good books get written this way.  But the downside is that without doing any market research or testing with readers, the odds may be very slim that anyone ever reads what you wrote.  Did you know that the vast majority of self-published books only sell a few dozen copies at most?  Writing for the market sounds terrible in an artistic sense, but it is really nothing more than common sense and a little market savvy.  This process starts by asking what kind of book does it appear that people want to read in this genre?  What are the most popular books recently?  It is not a call to be derivative or unoriginal, but instead, start with some knowledge about what book buyers are interested in reading. 

Another major fork in the road is traditional publishing versus self-publishing.  In the traditional model, authors approach literary agents with a book proposal and if an agent likes the proposal, they will then attempt to sell the book to one of the big publishing houses, like Simon & Schuster.  If the publisher signs on, the author negotiates an advance payment, royalties, rights, etc, and then starts writing the book. The creative process is very much collaborative in the traditional model.  Manuscripts go through a gauntlet of different kinds of editors and managers.  Once the book is completed, the publishing company owns the rights to distribute the book lock-stock-and-barrel.  The author has very little control in how the book is marketed, even though authors have been expected to participate more and more in marketing and promotion efforts over time. 

Self-publishing is just what it sounds like.  The author is also the publisher.  The upsides are that the author has complete creative control, can market the book however they like, and keeps a bigger cut of the sales.  The downsides are that complete creative control can result in a sub-standard book and assuming all the production and marketing responsibilities is a huge amount of work.   In a few short years, self-publishing has gone from having a decidedly low-brow reputation to being widely accepted as normal part of the book world.   Technology has played a big role in the growth of self-publishing.  An individual author can now easily access all the functions of a traditional publisher without ever leaving their home office, with one big exception.  Traditional publishers still jealously guard their stranglehold on the remaining brick-and-mortar bookstores.  

So how did I navigate all this?  When I started out over six years ago, I was very gung-ho on the idea of getting a literary agent and a traditional publishing deal.  Doug and I developed an extensive proposal, and I sent it to dozens and dozens of literary agents.  Not a single one bit on it.  I then moved down the food chain and started approaching university presses and small to medium “indie” publishing houses (the kind that take proposals directly from authors).  We had some nibbles, but no one was enthusiastic enough to take on the book.  Ironically, the most common feedback we received from managing editor-types was that they liked the part of the proposal about teaching people how commodity futures markets work, but not the funny stories.  We even had a couple of editors who said if we took out the stories, they might sign us on.  I am so glad that Doug and I stood our ground and did not give up on our vision for Back to the Futures.  Looking back a year after the book was published, it is patently clear that the personal stories in the book have been the most popular part and the main reason the book has sold as well as it has.  

As an aside, there is a broader lesson to be learned here.  My personal observation is that literary agents and book editors are not as good at picking books that will sell as they let on.  This is a part of the industry that is ripe for a “moneyball” makeover.  If you take out the obvious best sellers (e.g., a Kardashian), I think you would be surprised how well someone throwing darts at a list of book proposals would do in comparison to literary agents and book editors in selecting books that will sell.  The data back up this admittedly very strong assertion.  Consider the proprietary data on book sales in this fascinating thread at a book site from a couple of years ago.  The data shared by a publishing professional in the comment show that 15% of books sold by the traditional Big 5 publishers sell under a dozen copies.  That is under a dozen copies lifetime.  The next 50% of books sell between a dozen and one thousand copies lifetime.  Think about that for a minute.  About two-thirds of the books that have gone through the gauntlet of professional literary agents and book editors sell less than a thousand copies!  The lesson for authors is obvious—don’t give up just because the upper crust in the book business tells you your book isn’t very good.  I’m sure glad I didn’t. 

Now back to my story. After two years of failure approaching literary agents and publishers, it became obvious that either we had to give up on the book or go the self-publishing route.  Doug had already started moving in this direction with his own books (historical fiction, smart man there), and this gave me the confidence to try it myself.  So, I decided to take the leap and self-publish Back to the Futures.  If you know me, I hardly ever do anything less than 100%, so I decided I was going to jump into the book publishing business feet first.  I formed my own publishing company, Ceres Books LLC, and took a test run in December 2022 republishing Tom Hieronymus’ classic textbook Economics of Futures Trading.  This gave me the experience I needed to publish Back to the Futures one year ago today.   My goal was a finished book product that was every bit as good in terms of writing, production, and presentation as a anything produced by a Top 5 traditional publisher.  I know I cannot be objective, but I think we came pretty darn close to meeting that high standard with Back to the Futures.

I could write a small book on everything I have had to learn about producing and marketing books in the last couple of years.   One of the most interesting is the difference between the fiction and non-fiction book markets.   Most of Doug’s experience in self-publishing is in the fiction segment of the market.  We discovered that non-fiction readers are a very different animal than fiction readers.   Non-fiction readers are still primarily print-based while fiction readers tend to strongly prefer ebooks.  It is also much harder to get non-fiction readers to post reviews, while fiction readers can’t seem to wait to write about what they have just read.  It seems like non-fiction readers approach books with an education/learning mindset while fiction readers are all about entertainment.  I have been surprised that I could not find much written about this dichotomy at online book sites.  Maybe I just don’t know where to look.

I want to end by sharing with other budding authors some of the most helpful resources I have run across in the process of writing and publishing Back to the Futures:

1. David Gaughran is an indispensable resource.  He has written a series of books on self-publishing, and I devoured all of them except the one on Amazon advertising, and that is up next.  I recommend starting with his book “Let’s Get Digital” which provides a template for self-publishers starting from zero, which definitely described me perfectly.  David also has a free newsletter that is a must-read. 
2. Most of the advice for self-publishers is directed to fiction authors and that makes sense because that is the vast bulk of the book market.  Julie Broad and her firm BookLaunchers is the one exception that I could find.  She has written two terrific books for self-publishers in the non-fiction arena, with a focus on writing and marketing business books.  Julie is refreshingly honest, and her YouTube videos are terrific.  Her two books are “Self-Publish and Succeed” and “Self-Promote and Succeed.”  Boy, do I wish I could have read both books six years ago when I started my book journey, especially her second book.  It is chock full of practical ideas for marketing and promotion.
3. The Independent Book Publishing Association (IBPA) is another great resource, and it is well worth becoming a member.   The IBPA has a podcast that I also think should be on every self-publisher’s must-listen list.   As just one example, it is where I first heard about the Shimmr AI book marketing platform that I wrote about yesterday. 

I can hardly believe that a year has now passed since Back to the Futures was published.  What a grand adventure!  My sincere thanks to everyone who has gone along for the ride with me. 

Laurence J. Norton Chair of Agricultural Marketing
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

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