Research on forecasting across a multitude of economic time series demonstrates an interesting principle: simple, robust statistical models tend to dominate in terms of forecast…
There is much discussion these days about China not buying any US soybeans so far this marketing year. This is decidely not the norm. For…
Last Friday, the EPA released its decision on 2016-2024 SREs (small refinery exemptions) under the RFS. The EPA awarded 63 full SREs and 77 partial…
A few weeks ago, my publishing imprint, Ceres Books, released It’s All Speculation by Tom Hieronymus. It is a collection of Tom’s writings across his…
Last week, my little publishing imprint Ceres Books released a new title—It’s All Speculation by Tom Hieronymus. It is a collection of writings by Tom…
I am very pleased to share this guest blog post from Dwight Sanders of Southern Illinois University. He wrote an extended review of the newly…
In a post last week, I shared one of my favorite in-class exercises on coin-flipping and random walks. A related and equally fun day in…
If you ask students who have taken my commodity price analysis class at the University of Illinois the one thing they remember most, it is…
My colleague, Michael Roberts of the University of Hawaii, recently started a new Substack blog called “Grains to Gigawatts.” His first post is an important…
If you want to get a rise out of a farm audience, just mention USDA reports. To people outside of ag this is mystifying. Why…