Scott’s Latest farmdoc daily Articles – (View All Articles)
- Rewriting the RFS Playbook: The Impact of Final RVOs on Projected Biomass-Based Diesel Feedstock Use for 2026-2027by Todd Hubbs and Scott Irwin on June 25, 2026
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) finalized the “Set 2” rule at the end of March, establishing Renewable Volume Obligations (RVOs) under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) for 2026 and 2027 that are unprecedented in the history of the program. The purpose of this article is to project the feedstock use implied by our biomass-based diesel production and import projections for 2026 and 2027, focusing on the split between domestic and imported feedstock and soybean oil use.
- Rewriting the RFS Playbook: The Impact of Final RVOs on Projected Biomass-Based Diesel Production and Imports for 2026-2027by Todd Hubbs and Scott Irwin on June 10, 2026
The purpose of this article is to translate the required pace of D4 RIN generation into physical volumes of domestic production and imports needed to meet the final 2026 and 2027 RVOs under the RFS. On the domestic side, meeting the final RVOs requires FAME biodiesel to run essentially at its highest sustained pace on record and renewable diesel to run well beyond any pace it has ever achieved, with the combined sector operating at 90% of operable capacity in 2026 and 95% in 2027.
- Rewriting the RFS Playbook: The Challenge of Meeting D4 Biomass-Based Diesel RIN Generation for 2026-2027by Todd Hubbs and Scott Irwin on May 12, 2026
The analysis presented in this article frames the central question facing the biomass-based diesel sector and obligated parties under the EPA’s final Set 2 rule: How will the market deliver an unprecedented increase in D4 RIN generation in 2026 and 2027? The required monthly pace of D4 RIN net generation must rise from 592 million gallons in 2025 to 916 million gallons in 2026 and 991 million gallons in 2027—levels that exceed any sustained monthly pace in the historical record.
- Rewriting the RFS Playbook: The Impact of Final RVOs on Projected D4 Biomass-Based Diesel RIN Generation for 2026-2027by Todd Hubbs and Scott Irwin on April 28, 2026
On March 27, the EPA released the final “Set 2” rule establishing Renewable Volume Obligations under the RFS for 2026 and 2027. The purpose of this article is to project D4 RIN generation requirements for 2026–2027 using a detailed balance sheet approach applied to both the D4/D5 balance sheet and the D6 balance sheet. The D4/D5 balance sheet extends the RIN balance sheet framework introduced in our earlier farmdoc daily articles but is updated with actual 2025 data and the final RVOs.
Scott’s farmdoc Webinars (View all Webinars)
Implications of Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks Data for Corn and Soybean Market Outlook
by Scott Irwin and Joe Janzen on March 31, 2026
The March 31st release of Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks data by USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service is typically one of the most consequential data releases for corn and soybean markets. This post-report webinar will examine how the data release changes expected supply and demand conditions going into the 2026 crop season. Implications for old-crop and new-crop corn and soybean marketing decisions will also be discussed.
The Outlook for U.S. Biofuels: FAME Biodiesel and Renewable Diesel
by Scott Irwin on December 11, 2024
Renewable diesel experienced a truly historic boom starting in 2021 but plateaued recently. The demise of the FAME biodiesel industry has been widely predicted due to the renewable diesel boom. On top of all this, the re-election of President Trump has created tremendous policy uncertainty. The purpose of this webinar is to analyze the outlook for renewable diesel and FAME biodiesel in the next several years.
The Outlook for U.S. Biofuels: Ethanol and SAF
by Scott Irwin on December 4, 2024
The U.S. biofuels sector has been buffeted by change in recent years. Ethanol demand is threatened by rising sales of electronic vehicles (EVs). Renewable diesel has experienced a boom and something of a bust in the last three years. The new kid on the block is sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). Feedstock demand for each of these biofuels is tied up with a seemingly ever changing set of policies. The purpose of this webinar is to help make sense of where biofuel feedstock demand is headed in the next few years.
The Renewable Diesel Boom: What Does the Future Look Like?
by Scott Irwin on February 22, 2024
Scott Irwin will explore the current state and future of the U.S. renewable diesel industry, covering production trends, policy drivers, and the impact on feedstock demand.
Grain Market Outlook
by Scott Irwin and Joe Janzen on February 8, 2024
Scott Irwin and Joe Janzen will analyze 2024’s grain price forecasts and global market trends, discussing the implications for grain marketing strategies in light of supply and demand estimations.