My father, Jim Irwin, cultivating corn on our Iowa farm in the mid-1940s.
Does Complexity Pay in Forecasting?
Research on forecasting across a multitude of economic time series demonstrates an interesting principle: simple, robust statistical models tend to dominate in terms of forecast accuracy. The core finding traces back to early work by Dawes (1979) and Makridakis and Hibon (1979), who showed that simple linear models and naive…
Daredevils and Speculators
“Then we heard the high-pitched whir of a snowmobile engine far in the distance. It was like a scene from a World War II movie, where the Americans hear the ominous sound of an approaching Japanese bomber before they see it. The sound kept getting louder and louder, and we…
China and U.S. Soybean Exports
There is much discussion these days about China not buying any US soybeans so far this marketing year. This is decidely not the norm. For example, by this time last year China had booked over 400 million bushels of soybean imports from the US. The big question that everyone is…
SREs
Last Friday, the EPA released its decision on 2016-2024 SREs (small refinery exemptions) under the RFS. The EPA awarded 63 full SREs and 77 partial (50%) exemptions. The total for the 140 awarded exemptions was 5.34 billion gallons, a large amount by any standard. Here are some thoughts about the…
Friday Fun
If you’ve read my book Back to the Futures, you know that I have had a lifelong passion for things that go fast. I grew up going to dirt track races in Iowa with my dad and his racing friends. Our favorite place in the world on Saturday nights was…
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