Recently Published Journal Articles (View All Articles)
Does Complexity Pay? Forecasting Corn and Soybean Yields Using Crop Condition Ratings. Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics. Forthcoming, August 2025.
Productivity Growth from Genetic Improvement: Evidence from Illinois Soybean Trial Data. American Journal of Agricultural Economics. First published online: 14 May 2025.
Is Being Bold Better? Industry Expectations of USDA Corn and Soybean Production Estimates. Agricultural Economics. 56(2025):802-822.
The Future of Agricultural and Applied Economics Departments. Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy 46(2024):834-844.
Are USDA Forecasts Optimal? A Systematic Review. Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics 56(2024):496-527.
What Do We Know About the Value and Market Impact of the US Department of Agriculture Reports? Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy 46(2024):698-736.
Revisiting Biodiesel Hedging. Agribusiness 40(2024): 1002-1015.
Working Papers
The Biofuels Blueprint: Understanding the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard (September 2025)
Was Allen Paul Right? Liquidation Bias in Commodity Futures Markets (August 2025)
Price Connectedness in U.S. Biodiesel and Petroleum Diesel Markets (June 2025)
Miscellaneous
Searchable Database for Studies on the Accuracy and Market Impact of USDA Crop Reports (January 2023), Project for the National Corn Growers Association
What Do We Know about the Accuracy and Market Impact of USDA Crop Reports in the Corn Market? (January 2023), Report for the National Corn Growers Association
The Price of Biodiesel RINs and Economic Fundamentals (December 2018) NBER Working paper No. 25341
The Renewable Fuel Standard: Compliance and Stakeholder Perspectives (November 2018) Report for the Congressional Research Service
Futures Market Regulation (March 2018) American Enterprise Institute series on Agricultural Policy in Disarray: Reforming the Farm Bill
FaKe Beamer Powerpoint template (Jan 2018)
Latin Modern Roman fonts and Latin Modern Math font (Jan 2018)
Letter in Response to Wall Street Journal Op-Ed “Ethanol Hostages on Capitol Hill (Dec 2017)
Scott Irwin Answers Kocieniewski (Jan 2014) Guest blog post at Streetwise Professor
December 2013 NYT article and Links to Responses (Feb 2014)
Solving the Commodity Markets’ Non-Convergence Puzzle (August 2013) Amber Waves
Bubbles, Food Prices, and Speculation: Evidence from the CFTC’s Daily Large Trader Data Files (May 2013) NBER Working paper No. 19065
Blaming Energy Futures for Energy’s Current Costs (May 2012) Op-Ed in The Washington Times
The Impact of Index and Swap Funds on Commodity Futures Markets: Preliminary Results (Jun 2010) OECD Working Paper
The Impact of Index and Swap Funds in Commodity Futures Markets (Jun 2010) OECD Technical Report
Index Funds and Commodity Prices… Here We Go Again (Jul 2009) Guest blog post at Econbrowser
Market Instability in a New Era of Corn, Soybean, and Wheat Prices (Apr 2009) Choices, 1st Quarter 2009, 24(1)
The Misadventures of Mr. Masters: Act II (Sep 2008) Guest blog post at Econbrowser
Futures Imperfect (Jul 2008) Op-Ed in the New York Times
Is Speculation by Long-Only Index Funds Harmful to Commodity Markets? (Jul 2008) Testimony Prepared for the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Agriculture
Recent Convergence Performance of CBOT Corn, Soybean, and Wheat Futures Contracts (Jul 2008) Choices, 2nd Quarter 2008, 23(2)
Recent Delivery Performance of CBOT Corn, Soybean, and Wheat Futures Contracts (Apr 2008) Statement to the CFTC Agricultural Forum
Commodity Arbitrage (Apr 2008) Guest blog post at Econbrowser