Scott’s Latest farmdoc daily Articles – (View All Articles)
- Biodiesel Production Profits and Tax Creditsby Scott Irwin on March 20, 2026
Tax credits have been crucial to staving off an even larger wave of FAME biodiesel plant shutdowns in recent months. Without tax credit revenue, the market would have signaled that biodiesel plants shut down production every single week since the beginning of 2025. Looking ahead, this situation raises the stakes even higher for the upcoming EPA final rulemaking on Renewable Volume Obligations (RVOs) for 2026 and 2027. Strong RVO mandates for biomass-based diesel would provide crucial additional revenue.
- Ethanol Production Profits in 2025by Scott Irwin on March 5, 2026
The U.S. ethanol industry delivered another strong year of profitability in 2025. Net returns for a representative Iowa plant averaged $0.21 per gallon, well above the long-run average of $0.13 per gallon since 2007. On an annual basis, nominal profits of $23.2 million marked the sixth consecutive year in positive territory and the sixth year since 2007 with profits exceeding $20 million. Given the headwinds facing the industry at the start of 2025, this is a genuinely impressive result.
- Rewriting the RFS Playbook: The Impact of No Half-RIN and Higher RVOs on Projected Biomass-Based Diesel Production and Feedstock Use for 2026-2027by Todd Hubbs and Scott Irwin on February 25, 2026
A particularly controversial part of the EPA proposals for the RFS in 2026-27 is the limitation of imported biofuel and feedstock to 50% of the RINs generated by domestic biofuel and feedstock. There has been widespread reporting in recent weeks that the so-called “half RIN” proposal may be eliminated in the final rulemaking. This article projects biomass-based diesel production and feed-stock use for 2026-2027 without the half-RIN provision and higher biomass-based diesel RVOs.
- Trends in the Operational Efficiency of the U.S. Ethanol Industry: 2025 Updateby Scott Irwin on February 18, 2026
Recent trends in the operational efficiency of the U.S. ethanol industry are analyzed in this article. The picture that emerges from the analysis is one of tradeoffs in operational efficiency of dry mill ethanol plants, with more ethanol and corn oil production coming at the expense of less DDGS. The picture that emerges from the analysis is one of tradeoffs in operational efficiency of dry mill ethanol plants, with more ethanol and corn oil production coming at the expense of less DDGS.
Scott’s farmdoc Webinars (View all Webinars)
Implications of Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks Data for Corn and Soybean Market Outlook
by Scott Irwin and Joe Janzen on March 31, 2026
The March 31st release of Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks data by USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service is typically one of the most consequential data releases for corn and soybean markets. This post-report webinar will examine how the data release changes expected supply and demand conditions going into the 2026 crop season. Implications for old-crop and new-crop corn and soybean marketing decisions will also be discussed.
The Outlook for U.S. Biofuels: FAME Biodiesel and Renewable Diesel
by Scott Irwin on December 11, 2024
Renewable diesel experienced a truly historic boom starting in 2021 but plateaued recently. The demise of the FAME biodiesel industry has been widely predicted due to the renewable diesel boom. On top of all this, the re-election of President Trump has created tremendous policy uncertainty. The purpose of this webinar is to analyze the outlook for renewable diesel and FAME biodiesel in the next several years.
The Outlook for U.S. Biofuels: Ethanol and SAF
by Scott Irwin on December 4, 2024
The U.S. biofuels sector has been buffeted by change in recent years. Ethanol demand is threatened by rising sales of electronic vehicles (EVs). Renewable diesel has experienced a boom and something of a bust in the last three years. The new kid on the block is sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). Feedstock demand for each of these biofuels is tied up with a seemingly ever changing set of policies. The purpose of this webinar is to help make sense of where biofuel feedstock demand is headed in the next few years.
The Renewable Diesel Boom: What Does the Future Look Like?
by Scott Irwin on February 22, 2024
Scott Irwin will explore the current state and future of the U.S. renewable diesel industry, covering production trends, policy drivers, and the impact on feedstock demand.
Grain Market Outlook
by Scott Irwin and Joe Janzen on February 8, 2024
Scott Irwin and Joe Janzen will analyze 2024’s grain price forecasts and global market trends, discussing the implications for grain marketing strategies in light of supply and demand estimations.