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Are USDA Reports Still News to Changing Crop Markets? Food Policy, Available online March 12, 2019.
Trilogy for Troubleshooting Convergence: Manipulation, Structural Imbalance, and Storage Rates Journal of Commodity Markets, Available online December 5, 2018.
Information Transmission between Hog Futures and Expert Price Forecasts Journal of Agribusiness 38(2018):21-39.
Financialization and the Returns to Commodity Investments Journal of Commodity Markets 10(2018):22-28.
Speculation and Corn Prices Applied Economics 50(2018):4724-4744.
Mapping Algorithms, Agricultural Futures, and the Relationship between Commodity Investment Flows and Crude Oil Futures Prices Energy Economics 72(2018):486-504.
USDA Announcement Effects in Real-Time American Journal of Agricultural Economics 100(2018):1151-1171.
Do Markets Correct for Smoothing in USDA Crop Production Forecasts? Evidence from Private Analysts and Futures Prices Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy 39(2017):559-583.
Estimating the Cost of Pre-Harvest Forward Contracting Corn and Soybeans in Illinois Before and After 2007 Agribusiness33(2017):358-377.
New Evidence That Index Traders Did Not Drive Large Bubbles in Grain Futures MarketsJournal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 42(2017):45-67.
Bubbles, Froth, and Facts: Another Look at the Masters Hypothesis in Commodity Futures Markets Journal of Agricultural Economics 68(2017):345-365.
Forthcoming Journal Articles
The Changing Role of USDA Inventory Reports in Livestock Markets Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics
Writing Papers in Economics Using FaKe LaTeX (November 2018)
The Price of Biodiesel RINs and Economic Fundamentals (October 2018)
Fundamentals and Grain Futures Markets (September 2018)
How to Hedge Selectively: A Bayesian Approach (November 2008)
Heterogeneity in Economic Behavior (May 2004)
farmdoc Publication Series
Marketing & Outlook Briefs
USDA Corn and Soybean Acreage Estimates and Yield Forecasts: Dispelling Myths and Misunderstandings (Mar 2011)
Agricultural Policy Briefs
Could a Variable Ethanol Blenders’ Tax Credit Work? (Oct 2010)
Marketing & Outlook Research Reports
Evaluation of Selected USDA WAOB and NASS Forecasts and Estimates in Corn and Soybeans (Jan 2014)
AgMAS Reports (View Archived Publications)
Report 2012-02: The Pricing Performance of Market Advisory Services in Cattle Over 1995-2004 (June 2012)
Futures Market Regulation (March 2018) American Enterprise Institute series on Agricultural Policy in Disarray: Reforming the Farm Bill
FaKe Beamer Powerpoint template (Jan 2018)
Scott Irwin Answers Kocieniewski (Jan 2014) Guest blog post at Streetwise Professor
Solving the Commodity Markets’ Non-Convergence Puzzle (August 2013) Amber Waves
Bubbles, Food Prices, and Speculation: Evidence from the CFTC’s Daily Large Trader Data Files (May 2013) NBER Working paper No. 19065
What We’ve Learned About Speculation (Oct 2012) Open Markets blog post
Blaming Energy Futures for Energy’s Current Costs (May 2012) Op-Ed in The Washington Times
The Impact of Index and Swap Funds on Commodity Futures Markets: Preliminary Results (Jun 2010) OECD Working Paper
The Impact of Index and Swap Funds in Commodity Futures Markets (Jun 2010) OECD Technical Report
Index Funds and Commodity Prices… Here We Go Again (Jul 2009) Guest blog post at Econbrowser
Market Instability in a New Era of Corn, Soybean, and Wheat Prices (Apr 2009)
Choices, 1st Quarter 2009, 24(1)
The Misadventures of Mr. Masters: Act II (Sep 2008)
Guest blog post at Econbrowser
Futures Imperfect (Jul 2008)
Op-Ed in the New York Times
Is Speculation by Long-Only Index Funds Harmful to Commodity Markets? (Jul 2008)
Testimony Prepared for the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Agriculture
Recent Convergence Performance of CBOT Corn, Soybean, and Wheat Futures Contracts(Jul 2008)
Choices, 2nd Quarter 2008, 23(2)
Recent Delivery Performance of CBOT Corn, Soybean, and Wheat Futures Contracts (Apr 2008)
Statement to the CFTC Agricultural Forum
Commodity Arbitrage (Apr 2008)
Guest blog post at Econbrowser