Research

Recently Published 

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Are USDA Reports Still News to Changing Crop Markets? Food Policy, Available online March 12, 2019.

Trilogy for Troubleshooting Convergence: Manipulation, Structural Imbalance, and Storage Rates Journal of Commodity Markets, Available online December 5, 2018.

Information Transmission between Hog Futures and Expert Price Forecasts Journal of Agribusiness 38(2018):21-39.

Financialization and the Returns to Commodity Investments Journal of Commodity Markets 10(2018):22-28.

Speculation and Corn Prices Applied Economics 50(2018):4724-4744.

Mapping Algorithms, Agricultural Futures, and the Relationship between Commodity Investment Flows and Crude Oil Futures Prices Energy Economics 72(2018):486-504.

USDA Announcement Effects in Real-Time American Journal of Agricultural Economics 100(2018):1151-1171.

Do Markets Correct for Smoothing in USDA Crop Production Forecasts? Evidence from Private Analysts and Futures Prices Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy 39(2017):559-583.

Estimating the Cost of Pre-Harvest Forward Contracting Corn and Soybeans in Illinois Before and After 2007 Agribusiness33(2017):358-377.

New Evidence That Index Traders Did Not Drive Large Bubbles in Grain Futures MarketsJournal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 42(2017):45-67.

Bubbles, Froth, and Facts: Another Look at the Masters Hypothesis in Commodity Futures Markets Journal of Agricultural Economics 68(2017):345-365.

Forthcoming Journal Articles

The Changing Role of USDA Inventory Reports in Livestock Markets Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics

Working Papers

A Problem of Zeros: The Misbehavior of Simple Bid-Ask Spread Estimators (February 2019)

Is the Supply Curve for Commodity Futures Contracts Upward Sloping? (February 2019)

Returns to Investing in Commodity Futures: Separating the Wheat from the Chaff(January 2019)

Writing Papers in Economics Using FaKe LaTeX (November 2018)

The Price of Biodiesel RINs and Economic Fundamentals (October 2018)

Fundamentals and Grain Futures Markets (September 2018)

Evolution of the Impact of USDA Information in Crop and Livestock Markets (July 2018)

Are Agricultural Commodity Futures Getting Noisier? The Impact of High Frequencing Quoting in the Corn Market (October 2016)

Behavioral Biases in Grain Marketing: Evidence from Market Advisory Service Recommendations (January 2009)

How to Hedge Selectively: A Bayesian Approach (November 2008)

The Profitability of Technical Trading Rules in US Futures Markets:A Data Mining Free Test(May 2005)

Heterogeneity in Economic Behavior (May 2004)

farmdoc Publication Series

Marketing & Outlook Briefs
USDA Corn and Soybean Acreage Estimates and Yield Forecasts: Dispelling Myths and Misunderstandings (Mar 2011)

Agricultural Policy Briefs
Could a Variable Ethanol Blenders’ Tax Credit Work? (Oct 2010)

Marketing & Outlook Research Reports
Evaluation of Selected USDA WAOB and NASS Forecasts and Estimates in Corn and Soybeans (Jan 2014)

AgMAS Reports (View Archived Publications)
Report 2012-02: The Pricing Performance of Market Advisory Services in Cattle Over 1995-2004 (June 2012)

Report 2012-01: The Pricing Performance of Market Advisory Services in Hogs Over 1995-2004 (June 2012)

Miscellaneous

Futures Market Regulation (March 2018) American Enterprise Institute series on Agricultural Policy in Disarray: Reforming the Farm Bill

FaKe Beamer Powerpoint template (Jan 2018)

Latin Modern Roman fonts and Latin Modern Math font (Jan 2018)

Letter in Response to Wall Street Journal Op-Ed “Ethanol Hostages on Capitol Hill (Dec 2017)

Scott Irwin Answers Kocieniewski (Jan 2014) Guest blog post at Streetwise Professor

December 2013 NYT article and Links to Responses (Feb 2014)

Solving the Commodity Markets’ Non-Convergence Puzzle (August 2013) Amber Waves

Bubbles, Food Prices, and Speculation: Evidence from the CFTC’s Daily Large Trader Data Files (May 2013) NBER Working paper No. 19065

What We’ve Learned About Speculation (Oct 2012) Open Markets blog post

Blaming Energy Futures for Energy’s Current Costs (May 2012) Op-Ed in The Washington Times

The Impact of Index and Swap Funds on Commodity Futures Markets: Preliminary Results (Jun 2010) OECD Working Paper

The Impact of Index and Swap Funds in Commodity Futures Markets (Jun 2010) OECD Technical Report

Index Funds and Commodity Prices… Here We Go Again (Jul 2009) Guest blog post at Econbrowser

Comments on Permanent Senate Subcommittee on Investigations Report “Excessive Speculation in the Wheat Market” (Jul 2009)

Market Instability in a New Era of Corn, Soybean, and Wheat Prices (Apr 2009)
Choices, 1st Quarter 2009, 24(1)

The Misadventures of Mr. Masters: Act II (Sep 2008)
Guest blog post at Econbrowser

Futures Imperfect (Jul 2008)
Op-Ed in the New York Times

Is Speculation by Long-Only Index Funds Harmful to Commodity Markets? (Jul 2008)
Testimony Prepared for the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Agriculture

Recent Convergence Performance of CBOT Corn, Soybean, and Wheat Futures Contracts(Jul 2008)
Choices, 2nd Quarter 2008, 23(2)

Recent Delivery Performance of CBOT Corn, Soybean, and Wheat Futures Contracts (Apr 2008)
Statement to the CFTC Agricultural Forum

Commodity Arbitrage (Apr 2008)
Guest blog post at Econbrowser

The Performance of Chicago Board of Trade Corn, Soybean, and Wheat Futures Contracts after Recent Changes in Speculative Limits (May 2007)

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