Each year the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) provides estimates of planted acreage of corn and soybeans in the U.S. These estimates provide important fundamental information about potential crop … Read More Test
Using Preliminary FSA Data to Project Final Prevented Plant Acreage for Corn, Soybeans, and All Crops
Prevented plant coverage under the Federal crop insurance program provides payments when farmers are unable to plant within a normal time window. Estimating the number of prevented plant acres in … Read More Test
Ethanol Production Profits during the COVID Pandemic
It is widely acknowledged that the U.S. ethanol industry has been negatively impacted by the COVID pandemic. The plight of ethanol producers has prompted calls for financial relief from the … Read More Test
The Accuracy of Early Season Crop Weather Model Forecasts of the U.S. Average Soybean Yield
Soybean yield forecasts contained in May, June, and July WASDE reports from the USDA provide important information to market participants. The forecasts are based on a crop weather model developed … Read More Test
The Accuracy of Early Season Crop Weather Model Forecasts of the U.S. Average Corn Yield
Corn yield forecasts contained in May, June, and July WASDE reports from the USDA provide important information to market participants. The forecasts are based on crop weather models developed and … Read More Test
Understanding the WAOB Crop Weather Model for Soybeans
One of the key early assessments of the U.S. average soybean yield is the projection made by the USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB). Since 1993, those projections have been … Read More Test
Understanding the WAOB Crop Weather Model for Corn
One of the key early assessments of the U.S. average corn yield is the projection made by the USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB). Since 1993, those projections have been … Read More Test
Unconditional vs. Conditional Trend Estimates for U.S. Corn and Soybeans
Trend yield projections are foundations of early season forecasts of U.S. corn and soybean production. In two recent farmdoc daily articles we investigated the sensitivity of 2020 trend yield estimates … Read More Test
How Sensitive Are Trend Yield Projections for U.S. Soybeans to the Starting Year of the Estimation Period?
The first step in any effort to project soybean yields is estimating the trend, which is the “launch point” when forecasting. As the summer growing season progresses favorable conditions push … Read More Test
How Sensitive Are Trend Yield Projections for U.S. Corn to the Starting Year of the Estimation Period?
The start of summer means the market begins focusing on U.S. corn yield prospects. The first step in any effort to project corn yields is estimating trend yield. Trend estimation … Read More Test